Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got something to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
